The Vision 2020 Process

Introduction

The Vision 2020 process began in the fall of 1993 with the appointment of a four-person steering committee representing the sponsors of the project. The intent of the process was to develop a series of alternatives to guide the future growth of Dane County, and to give the public an opportunity for involvement in selecting the alternative which best fit its collective vision of the future. In May 1994, the actual planning process began with the selection of the consulting team to work with the staffs of the four sponsoring agencies.

The Vision 2020 planning process was created to prepare a unified land use and transportation plan for Dane County to the year 2020. This process was initiated in May 1994 as a follow-up to the Dane 2020 strategic planning effort undertaken in 1991-92. Vision 2020 represents a unique collaboration between the Dane County Regional Planning Commission (RPC), Dane County, the City of Madison, and the Wisconsin Department of Transportation.

This planning process was unique. It was different than previous efforts in Dane County in that it employed two computer models to evaluate the alternative scenarios created for both area land use and the transportation system needed to serve it. The SAVES model evaluated land use development patterns and then its output was used in the multi-modal transportation model, TRANPLAN.

The Vision 2020 process also worked in conjunction with three other related and ongoing planning efforts that are described below. These were undertaken to analyze areas of special concern to specific segments of the Dane County community.

The Wisconsin Department of Administration prepared the official population projections for Dane County which are based on birth rates, death rates, and assumptions about migration patterns. Those projections indicate that Dane County will grow by approximately 100,000 new residents by the year 2020. The staff of the Regional Planning Commission estimates this will create a need for over 40,000 new homes and apartments and approximately 57,000 new jobs in the county. The task before the community is to accommodate that growth while maintaining the high quality of life Dane County residents expect.

The Vision 2020 process was developed to meet two perceived needs. First was to prepare a strategy for successfully incorporating the land use and transportation system needs of the population growth of Dane County by the year 2020. Second was to meet the requirements of the 1991 federal Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act (ISTEA), which instructs all Metropolitan Planning Organizations (MPOs) to prepare a transportation plan update that takes into account several planning factors, including the impacts of transportation improvements on land use. These planning requirements are incorporated in the Appendices volume of the plan.

This plan has been developed as a county-wide land use and transportation plan building on the goals and objectives of prior planning efforts, and validated by a broad public involvement process. It is recognized that there is often a difficult balancing act that must occur between the rights of the individual property owners and what is best for the greater community. This plan replaces the RPC's Regional Development Guide and the Regional Transportation Plan. It guides public expenditures for transportation improvements for all modes, not just roadways and transit. It also advises local communities on the larger framework for the growth and development of the county, putting local planning initiatives in a larger context. It serves as a guide for the Dane County Regional Planning Commission, the Dane County Board of Supervisors, and local units of government, as they make decisions affecting future land uses and transportation.

As a land use plan, it is advisory to county and municipal decision-makers, acting as a guide in their review of development and infrastructure extension proposals. As a transportation plan, it provides guidance on future transportation investments to be included in the Transportation Improvement Program (TIP). The TIP is a programming document and includes a list of projects eligible for funding under federal aid programs, both as earmarked projects and as part of any general aid programs using state funds. The Wisconsin Department of Transportation consults the MPO plan prior to making project funding approvals. Therefore, the plan has a substantive role in the implementation of transportation improvements, including both roadways and transit.

The Vision 2020 Plan has been created with these two different functions in mind. Its primary goal is to create a framework for the future, supported by a transportation plan, that anticipates future growth and directs it to the most appropriate locations where it can be efficiently served by public services.

Isthmus 2020

Isthmus 2020, a separate study sponsored by the City of Madison, examined planning issues within the central area of the City of Madison. A task force of citizens studied the planning issues in the Isthmus 2020 study area which was defined from Glenway on the west to State Trunk Highway (STH) 30 and Starkweather Creek on the east. At the conclusion of its study, the Isthmus 2020 Committee recommended that 4,500 new dwelling units and 14,000 new jobs be allocated to this study area from the total allocation for the central urban service area. These recommendations were consistent with those of Vision 2020 and have been incorporated into this plan.

North Ring Corridor Committee

A committee comprised of members of the Dane County Board of Supervisors and local officials was charged with studying the feasibility and potential impacts of the development of a transportation connection around the north side of Lake Mendota connecting the I-90/94 corridor with the USH 12 corridor. Dane County Regional Planning Commission (RPC) staff has provided this committee with information and analysis. This committee recommended official mapping to preserve corridors in this area, some intersection improvements and further study before any major corridor improvements. Vision 2020 has also examined the impact of the corridor in regards to transportation and land use, and has analyzed the costs and impacts of future congestion levels on building or not building the new corridor. That analysis has been incorporated into this plan.

Dane County Committee to Evaluate Commuter Rail Implementation

In 1995 and 1996, a separate County Board-sponsored committee studied the feasibility of commuter rail in Dane County. The study concluded that commuter rail appeared feasible in the east-west transit corridor from the Village of Mazomanie, through the City of Madison to the City of Sun Prairie and further study of the corridor was warranted. Vision 2020 has incorporated the results of this analysis in its recommendations.

Existing Conditions and Trends

Introduction

Existing data forms the baseline condition from which policies and plans can be developed to guide the future of Dane County. The major elements of population, households, and employment are the bases upon which future plans are developed. This chapter summarizes historical trends and existing conditions of Dane County. For additional annual demographic trends, the Dane County Regional Planning Commission (RPC) produces a "Regional Trends" report that documents growth and development in the county.

The Urban Service Areas (USAs) within Dane County are those areas within and around existing communities which are most suitable for urban development. See Exhibit 2-1. These areas are considered capable of providing a full range of urban services to support urban development. The City of Madison and areas immediately adjacent to the City are classified as the central urban service area (CUSA). Outlying urban service areas (OUSAs) are the smaller scale urban communities. The remainder of the County is classified as non-USA, rural areas.

Exhibit 2-1

Urban Service Areas

Dane County, Wisconsin

Overall Trends

Continued population, housing and employment growth creates pressure for land use change and supporting infrastructure improvements. Table 2-1 outlines the 1970-2020 Dane County historic and projected trends for the key growth variables.

Table 2-1

Dane County Trends

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Wisconsin Dept. of Administration and Dane County Regional Planning Commission

Population Trends

The Wisconsin Department of Administration estimated the 1996 Dane County population was 398,233, an 8.5% population increase from 1990. Exhibit 2-2 tracks Dane County's population from 1970 to 2020, showing that the county's population is expected to reach 488,515 by the year 2020, a 33% increase from 1990.

Exhibit 2-2

Dane County Population Trends

1970 to 2020

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Dane County Regional Planning Commission

Population Distribution

Gradually, between the years 1970 and 1990, the percentage of the population growth in the outlying USAs was slightly higher than the percentage of growth in the CUSA although both populations continue to grow, as shown in Exhibit 2-3. This trend is expected to continue in the future with the OUSAs accounting for 24% of the county's population by 2020.

Exhibit 2-3

Dane County Population Distribution

1970

1990

2020

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Dane County Regional Planning Commission

Population Growth Rates

The historical and projected growth rates for Dane County and for the CUSA, OUSAs and the rural area are shown in Exhibit 2-4. Overall, the fastest growth rates are expected to occur during the decade of the 1990s and then gradually taper off between 2000 and 2020.

Exhibit 2-4

Dane County Annual Growth Rates Per Decade by Area

Source: Dane County Regional Planning Commission

Age Composition

The age composition of the county's population changed significantly during the 1980s. Five age groups gained population, while two lost population. The most significant changes included:

· over a 26% increase in the number of preschool age children;

· a substantial increase of 72% in adults between 35 and 44; and

· an increase of almost 26% in older adults age 65 and over.

This relatively young population, with a corresponding increase in the number of young children, will affect various elements of all plans including housing patterns and the provision of local facilities such as schools, parks, and emergency services.

Households

Since the 1970s, declining household size has resulted in a household growth rate that has increased faster than population growth rate. From 1970 to 1990, the number of households in Dane County grew by 61%, while population grew by 26% (shown in Exhibit 2-5). A direct correlation can be drawn between this phenomenon and the amount of land devoted to residential land uses.

Exhibit 2-5

Household Growth In Dane County, 1970-1990

Source: Dane County Regional Planning Commission

Housing Units

Dane County experienced a net increase of 55,971 housing units from 1970 to 1990. Between 1990 and 2020, the county is expected to add 64,548 new units to its housing stock, with the majority located within urban service areas. (See Table 2-2.)

This plan reflects market trends. It projects a 2020 distribution of single family housing units to multi-family units in the outlying USAs of 59% to 41%, if the trend since 1980 continues. In 1970, single family units made up 74% of housing in outlying USAs. By 1977, single family units made up 65% of all housing units in outlying USAs. Single family units made up 60% of all housing constructed during the last 26 years.

Table 2-2

Housing Units: 1970-2020

Source: Dane County Regional Planning Commission, derived from DOA Population Projections

Employment

The availability of jobs in a variety of industrial, manufacturing, retail and service sectors provides stability for a growing population. Since 1970, 95,383 jobs have been added to the Dane County economy and by 2020, an additional 72,582 jobs are expected. (See Table 2-3.)

Table 2-3

Dane County Labor Force and Employment: 1970-2020

Source: Dane County Regional Planning Commission

Existing Land Use

Successful planning for future development starts with a realistic understanding of the land use patterns that exist in today's environment. Table 2-4 presents a summary of the 1970 and 1990 major land acreages. The 1990 existing land use is shown in Exhibit 2-6. The most significant trends are highlighted below.

· The greatest amount of land in Dane County is agricultural and undeveloped land at 674,160 acres in 1990, or over 85% of the total acreage. Conversion of agricultural land is taking place in Dane County. According to the Wisconsin Department of Agriculture, Trade and Consumer Protection, between 1970 and 1990 in Dane County, 27,207 acres of agricultural land were converted to other uses. These were primarily residential, industrial and commercial land uses.

Table 2-4
Dane County Land Uses: 1970 and 1990

Transportation

Roadways

Population growth, employment growth and the distribution of that growth throughout the region have contributed to an increasing demand for travel on the county's arterial roadway system. From 1970 to 1990, the number of people from outlying communities commuting to work to the City of Madison increased from 12,000 to 31,000 (See Exhibit 2-7). In addition, according to the 1990 Census, 17,527 workers who reside outside of Dane County commute to work sites within Dane County, while another 9,232 Dane County residents commute to work sites outside of Dane County. Exhibit 2-8 shows 1970-1990 average daily traffic growth for roadways outside of the Central Urban Area and Exhibit 2-9 displays 1995 congestion levels for roadways within the Central Urban Area.

Exhibit 2-7

Commuting to Madison from Outlying Dane County

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census

Exhibits 2-8 & 2-9

Transit

Bus ridership in the urban area decreased substantially from the late 1970s until 1990. Since 1990, however, transit ridership has stabilized. (See Exhibit 2-10). Major reasons for the decline in ridership include Madison Area Technical College's (MATC) relocation from the central business district (CBD) to the east side, the location of major residential and commercial developments in outlying areas of the city, off-peak service reductions, fare increases, a work stoppage in 1990, ample fuel supplies, increased downtown parking (especially private long term parking) and generally low driving costs. Madison Metro is currently taking steps to improve service to its core ridership groups, while trying to reach out and extend into new markets. The 1997 transfer point routing structure will make trips from the periphery to the CBD more appealing by reducing overall trip times for many people.

Exhibit 2-10

Transit Ridership: 1982 to 1996

Source: Madison Metro

Paratransit (Specialized Transportation)

Specialized Transportation involves the provision of transit services to those segments of the population that require more accessible vehicles and more "enhanced" and flexible routing than is available with fixed-route, main-line transit services. As the elderly population grows in size and the disabled population becomes more mobile, the number of persons requesting specialized transportation will increase. Increasing demand, rising costs, limited funding, and the need for alternate providers are the emerging issues that will need to be addressed in the coming years.

Exhibit 2-11

1990 Dane County Mode Splits for Work Trips

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census

Pedestrians

Pedestrian movements and facilities are an important part of this plan as an essential part of most trips is walking. According to the 1990 Census, 16,860 persons, or 9% of all workers indicated they walked to work. (See Exhibit 2-11.) Communities and neighborhoods throughout the county continue to express concern for safe and convenient pedestrian travel. Pedestrians are also an important part of Madison's transportation planning which is evident by the recently drafted Pedestrian Transportation Plan. In the Madison urban area, pedestrian overpasses or underpasses have been constructed across such major roadways as Stoughton Road, Verona Road and the South and West Beltlines. In addition, the City has incorporated techniques such as traffic calming and priority pedestrian corridors into its planning and implementation efforts.

Bicycles

Over the past 25 years, bicycling has become an increasingly important mode of transportation and recreational activity in Dane County. According to the 1990 Census, 2% of all Dane County workers, or approximately 3,970 persons, use a bicycle as their primary mode of transportation to work. (See Exhibit 2-11.) Bikeway facility improvements in the Madison urban area are currently guided by the Bicycle Transportation Plan for Madison and Dane County, adopted in 1991. Major projects developed from this plan include the recently constructed Isthmus Bike Path, segments of the Capital City State Trail, and the Wingra Creek and Starkweather Creek paths.

Rail Transportation

The county's rail corridors are located in a "hub-and-spoke" pattern with Madison serving as the principal focal point. Over the years, automobile, truck and airplane travel have, to a large extent, displaced rail service. The future status of private railroad operations in Dane County is difficult to predict. Increasingly frequent rail service abandonments and consolidations by area rail companies have fostered increased public involvement in rail corridor preservation activities for future restoration of rail service or for alternative uses such as bicycle or hiking trails.

Air Transportation

Dane County contains one commercial service airport and five basic utility airports. In 1991, a Master Plan for the Dane County Regional Airport was completed. A Master Plan for Morey Field has also been completed and consideration of Blackhawk Airport for reliever status is currently underway. Morey Field is under consideration for redevelopment as an industrial park.

Parking

The most critical parking situation in Dane County occurs in Madison. Current local policy is directed toward ensuring adequate, but not abundant, parking in new developments. The public parking system is designed to favor car- poolers while meeting the needs of the short-term parker. Transit use for the long-term, work trip user who does not require the use of an automobile during the day is also strongly encouraged. The City of Madison, UW-Madison and the private sector are currently providing additional parking in the central Madison area in part to replace backyard and other small off-street spaces. Support remains strong, however, to retain on-street parking in neighborhood business districts.

Summary of Land Use and

Transportation Alternatives

Numerous alternatives were created, evaluated and tested with the public in the course of developing this land use and transportation plan. These alternatives have been described in detail and can be found in the Appendices volume of the plan.

The process began with the creation of a group of ten possible regional scenarios representing a wide variety of growth options for the county. These were refined to five alternatives which were reviewed with the public and further refined into three alternatives. The three alternatives were classified as representing a dispersed growth pattern, a compact growth pattern, and a reflection of the combined adopted local land use plans from around the county. These were fully developed and evaluated for both land use and transportation components.

The three alternatives were taken to the public in a series of public meetings. Following receipt of public comments on these alternatives, a single draft plan alternative was prepared and presented to the community in the form of public meetings as well as a draft plan report. Public hearings on this draft plan were held in January 1997.